Saturday, November 17, 2007

Moola games. Complete luck or skill?

HI/LO - Pretty much a game of luck. The only skill involved is knowing when to lock in your cards and getting lucky that it doesn't hurt you in the long run.

Ro-Sham-bo-fu - This game is mostly luck, but they add a twist that makes it a little more skill. The first set is worth 3 points, but if you don't use Rock you get a bonus of 2 points. Even if the other player wins you will at least get the 2 point bonus for not choosing Rock in this scenario. This leaves only Paper or Scissors, and since both players are given the same bonus option, the best option in this scenario is to choose scissors because it beats paper. Here's the reason: you choose scissors, even if your opponent chooses Rock he only gets 3 points and loses out on his bonus, but you get the bonus. Now, the score is 3 to 2. If your opponent also chooses scissors, you tie and each get 2 points. On the off-chance your oppent picks paper, you win and get 3 points plus 2 bonus - the score is 5 to 2. On the first move this is really your best option.

Second Round. If their was a tie in the previous round, this round will be worth 6 points. Here's where more luck comes in. You have to guess what your player will do next. Let's assume the next bonus is if you don't pick Paper. Do you think that your opponent will stay safe and pick Rock (using the methodology described above)? If so, then pick paper lose out on the 2 point bonus, but pick up the 6 points. Or, do you think that your opponent will also be sneaky and pick Paper for the win, then you could go with Scissors, which would not only give you the 6 points for the win, but 2 points for the bonus and your opponent would get none; however, this move is risky because you may be against a player who only goes with the bonus, and you will be out the win here and be down 6 ponts. You really have to poke around and figure out what type of player you are against... with all things said, it's still a lot of luck. But, there's a lot of players who only pick one of the two bonus items, which is a definite win for any player who reads this.

Gold Rush - There's definitely a little bit of skill involved in this little game. For instance, the first stone comes out and it's a six, and naturally (if you know nothing about the game) you want to throw a 6 stone at it. Your opponent throws a 1 stone and you get 13 points. You think you did good, but now, the 5 stone comes out and both you and your opponent throw a 5 stone, which results in a tie and 15 points in the middle. You have no chance in winning this because your opponent has a 6 and you already wasted it so you end up losing the game. There is still a lot of luck involved, trying to get a read on an opponent you've never played. Are they going to throw a 1, 2, or 3 stone first. I haven't quite developed a winning game plan yet, but I've won my fare share. I usually come out throwing a 2 or 3 stone. I expect on a 6 stone that my opponent will throw out his 6 stone, so I throw my 1 stone. As long as I play my stones right I have a pretty good chance to win once my opponent gets rid of his 6 stone. You really have to pay attention to whats out there though and figure out what your opponent needs to win. Once you or your opponent reach 32 the game is over... so keep that in mind.

Here's a rundown of a recent game to show how luck and skill are both involved:
  • First, the 4 comes out of the mine. It's probable that an opponent will throw just a 1 here, but a lot of times they will throw a 2, so I throw 3 and my opponent throws a 1. Score 8-0.
  • Second, a three comes out. I know the player just played his 1, and will most likely play his 2 here, so I just give it to him by playing my 1. He plays a 2, and wins. Score 8-6.
  • Third, a 1 comes out. This is kind of unlucky for me because my opponent has used his 2 lowest gold pieces already, so I will lose this one, but I throw my 2 anyways. My opponent throws his 3 and wins. Score 8-12. Now, we're even with stones (we both have a 4,5, and 6) and my opponent has the lead.
  • Fourth, a 5 comes out. I'm thinking that my opponent will most likely throw a 5 or 6. If we both throw 6's, we end up in a tie, and since he has the lead it is a sure win for him, so I don't want to throw my 6; my only chance is throwing a 4, so I throw out my 4. My opponent throws his 6 and he wins. Score 8-27.
  • Fifth, the 2 comes out. You would think that I'm in the dumps here... down 27-8. But I have a 5 and 6. My opponent only has a 4 and 5. There is no possible way that he can win. See, that last move sealed his fate. He gambled thinking that I would throw a 6, but I knew that I couldn't win by throwing a 6, but he did... now he's done. I don't care about the size of the stone that comes out at this point. I have a 5, 6 and my opponent has a 4, 5. I will win. I have to throw my 5 first because the best he can do is tie, no matter what. He hopes that I'll mess up and throw my 6 here, so he throws his 4 (his only chance). I win. Score 19-27.
  • Sixth, the 6 comes out. I have a 6 left my opponent has a 5. I win.

If my opponent would have played his 4 on the 4th stone... maybe I throw a 6 as he thought I might do. He would still have won. If you are in the lead and you and your opponent both have stones 4,5, and 6 left. It's probably better just to throw your 4. We would have tied, then throw the 6 and he would automatically win for going over 32 points. He had the lead, so even if we ended up with a stalemate he would have won.

Here's the different ways it could've have ended if my opponent played his 4 first:

  • I throw a 4,6, then 5 and he throws the same, we tie, but he still wins because he had more points.
  • I throw a 5. I win this round. Score 22-27. But now I have only a 4 and 6 left. My opponent has a 5 and 6. Stones 2 and 6 are left. When stone 2 drops, if my opponent drops his 6 and I throw a 4, he will win. If he drops his 6 and I drop my 6, we tie, but all those points go into the center and he will still win.
  • I throw a 6. I win this round. Score 23-27. And now, I'm in the predicament he was. (He wins)

There is a lot of logic involved in this game, as you can see there is a little bit of luck too.

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